Probability models > Non-binomial probabilities
1234Non-binomial probabilities

Theory

Often a particular probability problem is not binomial at all. This happens when there is no repetition of equivalent experiments and/or there are more than two possible outcomes ("success" or "failure").

For example, imagine you have a small population of, say, 25 elements, 5 of which have a particular characteristic. From this population you take a sample of 6 elements. X would then be the number of elements in your sample that have the specific characteristic. The corresponding probabilities are:

Ρ ( X = 2 ) = 5 25 4 24 15 23 14 22 13 21 12 20 ( 6 2 ) .

The expected value is: Ε ( X ) = 25 5 25 .

If you take a small sample from a large population (for example 6 out of 25000 , of which 5000 have a particular characteristic) you can still use the binomial probability model, even though you are not actually dealing with equal chances. This is because the value of the fractions 5000 25000 and 4999 24999 is almost the same.
In practice, when you take a sample from a large population, and you are interested in the number of elements that carry a particular characteristic, then you can simply use the binomial probability model.

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